Bitcoin Will Be a Key Factor in the 2024 Election

Never before in history has Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency community held such potential to wield significant influence in a U.S. presidential election. Despite being more than a year away from November 2024, campaigns are already in full force, and whether one likes it or not, Bitcoin has become a prominent issue on the ballot. The mere fact that numerous candidates find it necessary to adopt a stance on "crypto" speaks to the extraordinary nature of this momentous occasion.

On the Republican side, there are several prominent candidates who are strong supporters of Bitcoin, championing its core principles of liberty, confidentiality, and decentralization. Among them are Governor Ron DeSantis, Mayor Francis Suarez, and Vivek Ramaswamy. Governor DeSantis has further solidified his stance by opposing the introduction of a U.S. central bank digital currency (referred to as the "digital dollar"), underscoring his unwavering dedication to decentralization and safeguarding data privacy.

In the realm of Democrats, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made a resolute commitment to safeguard the rights of all Americans to utilize, possess, and mine Bitcoin without facing unjust government scrutiny. On the other hand, although Elizabeth Warren has expressed her intention to establish an "anti-crypto army," she, at the very least, recognizes the undeniable significance of cryptocurrencies, albeit from a negative perspective.

Former President Donald J. Trump, who was both the Republican frontrunner and a long-time skeptic of Bitcoin, has notably chosen to remain silent on the matter. This unexpected silence, alongside the emerging political landscape, raises a compelling question: Why is Bitcoin garnering more attention this time around, when it seemed inconsequential in previous general elections?

Undoubtedly, the crypto industry's growth and the substantial number of investors in the United States have reached levels that cannot be easily overlooked. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, approximately 8% to 11% of Americans – a significant enough portion to potentially influence an election – are now crypto owners, with the exact percentage dependent on the timing of the bull/bear market cycle. This figure is expected to witness a remarkable surge, owing to recent developments such as BlackRock, Vanguard, and other major financial institutions embracing Bitcoin as a viable investment option. Notably, BlackRock has taken a crucial step towards mainstream acceptance by applying to the SEC for the establishment of a Bitcoin ETF.

Furthermore, findings from a Plaid survey reveal that 46% of Black Americans and 44% of Hispanic Americans perceive cryptocurrencies as offering greater accessibility compared to the traditional financial sector. This stands in contrast to data from the Fed and Pew Research Center, which indicate that crypto investment is the sole asset class where Black and Hispanic voters outperform White Americans on a per capita basis. Given that these demographics hold significant importance in a presidential election, it becomes crucial to acknowledge that a candidate's position on crypto policy could directly influence the investment portfolios of these voters.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are attracting a remarkable level of media attention, far surpassing that of other industries. The press plays a crucial role in determining the success of any political candidate, and consequently, many politicians are taking decisive stands on crypto policy to enhance their public image. A case in point is Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio), who secured his first term in 2022 partly by presenting himself as a pro-Bitcoin candidate.

Furthermore, the 2022 New York Governor's race witnessed unprecedented significance as both Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin were confronted with questions regarding their positions on Bitcoin and Bitcoin data centers during their initial public debate. This topic had never been raised in previous election cycles, underscoring the growing importance of Bitcoin as a pivotal election issue, regardless of political viewpoints.

Since assuming office in January 2021, the Biden administration has consistently upheld a stringent stance on cryptocurrency. Notably, both the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council of Economic Advisers have issued unfavorable reports concerning Bitcoin.

The OSTP report drew criticism for its treatment of the environmental impact of Bitcoin data centers, as it failed to provide a fair comparison with other major industries or conduct a comprehensive analysis of the entire data center market. Furthermore, nearly 20% of the report's citations heavily relied on Digiconomist, a highly controversial researcher whose methodologies have been widely discredited by various technical analysts. Adding to the controversy, the President's budget proposed a specific 30% tax on Digital Asset Mining Energy (DAME) for Bitcoin data centers, while neglecting to apply the same standard to other types of data centers.

Proposing policies targeting the discouragement of Bitcoin mining may have adverse consequences for candidates running in the 2024 election. Numerous Bitcoin data centers are emerging in Rust Belt counties, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, which hold significant influence as crucial swing votes in federal elections. These Bitcoin mining companies are not only providing employment to thousands of voters but also contributing to local tax revenue and rejuvenating long-neglected and underserved regions that have struggled for generations.

A potential tax on Bitcoin mining, similar to the DAME excise tax, could pose a threat to employment and economic rejuvenation in crucial electoral communities. As a result, this measure might encounter resistance in significant electoral zones. Whether the 2024 Biden campaign will adopt a more lenient stance towards the cryptocurrency industry as it engages in campaign activities in these regions remains uncertain.

Possibly the most significant catalyst for the 2024 election could originate from within the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community. Often recognized for their internal conflicts, enthusiasts of Bitcoin and crypto hold diverse and fervent ideologies, which have occasionally led to a continuous cycle of division. However, the recent surge of political and regulatory pressures on the industry might act as a unifying factor, potentially transforming the game for the upcoming election.

In the past, clashes over protocols, Twitter battles, and differing coin cultures used to dominate all other concerns. However, there is now a growing trend of unity among many supporters who recognize that political cohesion is essential for the survival of the United States. In early 2023, investor and analyst Nic Carter presented a series of investigative pieces that revealed the potential use of the banking sector to unfairly hinder Bitcoin and crypto businesses. These policies had numerous adverse effects on American companies. Nevertheless, a potential silver lining for the industry emerged as it acted as a wake-up call, illustrating that internal divisions pale in comparison to the indiscriminate external attacks they face.

In a surprising twist, the anti-Bitcoin and anti-crypto stance propagated by certain individuals in Washington DC has inadvertently given rise to a fervent and oppositional voting bloc that hadn't previously existed. Much like any other industry or community, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency enthusiasts exhibit a wide range of backgrounds and political perspectives. However, the persistence of anti-innovation policies has led to a growing sense of distrust among a diverse coalition of Democrats, independents, and Republicans who are pro-crypto. They are now willing to prioritize this single issue when casting their votes, as they perceive their livelihoods, investments, and ideological beliefs to be at risk.

Moreover, this particular group firmly believes that implementing policies that hinder innovation could result in irreversible harm to the United States' competitiveness on the global stage. While there are minimal, if any, U.S. voters who would lend their support to a candidate solely based on their anti-Bitcoin stance (as it holds little significance for most individuals), there exists a substantial contingent of U.S. citizens who are inclined to vote for a candidate merely because of their pro-Bitcoin stance. These voters, often referred to as single-issue voters, are the driving force behind why numerous presidential candidates openly express their pro-innovation, pro-Bitcoin, and pro-crypto positions during their campaigns. They recognize that adopting an "anti-Bitcoin" stance would alienate a rapidly expanding group of young, diverse, and politically-engaged American voters.

Politicians gearing up for the upcoming campaign cycle should pay close attention.

Source Coindesk